How Caissavest plays the market
One tested rule set, called QMR (Quality Mean Reversion): buy strong companies after a short, sharp dip and sell into the bounce. It was chosen after testing 28 strategies and about 150 variations on 2008 to 2026 prices.
New to the words? Mean reversion, RSI(2) and the 200-day average are explained in plain English below.
Only strong stocks
Large companies trading above their 200-day average (a long-term uptrend), and only while the S&P 500 is above its own.
Wait for the dip, then move
A buy signal needs a sharp short-term drop (the 2-day RSI under 10 to 15, depending on the level). Signals are found at the close and published that evening; everyone gets the same entry, the next morning's open.
Sell the bounce
Sell at the open after the first close above the 5-day average (the exit price), or after 10 trading days, whichever comes first.
One trade, start to finish
- The setup. The stock is above its 200-day average (dashed): a long-term uptrend.
- The dip. Two sharp down days (shaded) push RSI(2) under the level's line. That evening it's a pick.
- The buy. Buy at the next morning's open, whatever the price.
- The bounce. The first close above the 5-day average (thin line) is the exit signal; the rules sell at the open after it. Here: about +3% in 3 days.
An illustration with made-up prices, not a real trade. About a third of real trades lose; the 10-day limit closes those.
The five risk levels
| Level | Who it suits | How it differs |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Capital preservation | Smallest swings | Deepest dips only, 10 slots, a stop-loss |
| 2 Conservative | Steady | Deepest dips, 8 slots |
| 3 Balanced | Most people | Wider entry, idle cash parked in the Nasdaq 100 |
| 4 Growth | Higher return, bigger drops | 5 larger slots, idle cash in the Nasdaq 100 |
| 5 Aggressive | Biggest swings | Like Growth, without the market filter |
Is this for me?
A good fit if you
- can spend a few minutes each evening
- are comfortable holding a stock for about 3 days, up to 10
- accept that about a third of trades lose, and size each one small
- want rules to follow, not tips to chase
Not a fit if you
- want to trade minute by minute (day trading)
- need guaranteed income or can't afford to lose money
- want someone to manage your account for you
- are looking for options, crypto or penny stocks
Keeping score honestly
Every published pick is graded automatically at real prices, wins and losses alike, and compared with what the backtest expects. A verdict needs at least 20 closed trades of each type. Picks are time-stamped when they are published, before the market opens.
Your journal
Members can log their own trades by hand in a private journal and see how their results compare with the rules. Caissavest never connects to a brokerage account and never places a trade.
How the strategy was tested
Level 3 · Balanced
+16.9% a yearHypothetical results of the rules on past prices, after estimated costs: tested, not earned. Worst drop -22%; 63% of trades won.
The other four levels, year-by-year results for each, and how Caissavest compares with 28 other strategies.
Create a free account to see themWords worth knowing
- Dip
- A short, sharp fall in a stock that is otherwise rising. Caissavest buys strong stocks during dips and sells when they bounce back.
- 200-day moving average
- The average closing price over the last 200 trading days (about 10 months). A stock above it is usually in a long-term uptrend.
- RSI(2)
- The Relative Strength Index over just 2 days, on a 0–100 scale. Under 10–15 means the stock fell unusually hard in the last two days: Caissavest's buy trigger.
- Mean reversion
- The tendency of prices that moved unusually far, unusually fast, to drift back toward their average. The idea behind "buy the dip, sell the bounce".
- Exit price
- The price that ends a trade. Caissavest sells at the next open after the first close above the 5-day average, or after 10 trading days.
- Time stop
- A rule that closes a trade after a set time, win or lose, so money is not stuck in a trade that is going nowhere. Caissavest's is 10 trading days.
- Drawdown
- How far an account falls from its highest point before it recovers. The "worst drop" on the Record page is the largest drawdown in the backtest.
- Win rate
- The share of closed trades that made money. A high win rate is not enough on its own: the size of the wins and losses matters too.
- Backtest
- Testing a rule on past prices to see how it would have done. Results are hypothetical: nobody earned them, and the future can differ.
- Out-of-sample
- Data a strategy was not built on. Caissavest checks its rules on 2019 onward, years they weren't tuned to, to see if the edge holds.
What Caissavest is not
It is not personal advice, it does not know your finances, it never connects to your broker, and it never places trades. Read the Risk Disclosure and Terms of Service.